A week is a long, long time

There's an old saying, that a week is a long time in politics. Tell me about it! What a week it's been -- in politics and in finance. I went on a short trip to Europe and by the time I got back to South Africa, everything had changed: in politics in South Africa, and in finance around the world.

In South Africa, Jacob Zuma's court case had been thrown out, and Thabo Mbeki had been forced to resign.

I saw headlines about the Zuma case while I was in London -- and of course I immediately turned to the Internet to get all the details. How strange -- the Zuma faction had been making all sorts of noises about how the judiciary was counter-revolutionary and could not be trusted -- and now they were praising the judge for ruling in their favour. Not only that, but the judge had apparently agreed with the argument that there was a conspiracy against Zuma.

A friend who's a former banker in London pulled out the Financial Times -- there was Zuma, right on the front page, dancing his victory dance, and singing his favourite song, "bring me my machine gun." "This is not good for South Africa," said my friend. "This newspaper is read by all the bankers and financial investors. How do you think they will react to see the next president of South Africa singing such a warlike song?"

The judgment in the Zuma case motivated and empowered his supporters to move against Thabo Mbeki, gathering enough support within the ANC's top structures to force him to resign. Sad for Mbeki, and shocking for South Africa, but overall a good sign for democracy.

I'm not happy that Zuma's now a shoe-in as president. But the axing of party leaders and the downfall of prime ministers and presidents is what happens all the time in working democracies. Similar scenes have played out in Britain many times, for example -- Margaret Thatcher was ousted in a similar way, and at the moment Prime Minister Gordon Brown faces a growing challenge to his leadership.

I missed Thabo Mbeki's resignation speech, as I was on the plane to Entebbe, but here in Uganda people are commenting about how impressive it is that Mbeki bowed to the will of his party, and resigned. Mbeki may have had many failings as a president, but his stepping down gracefully has to be commended. What a contrast to the likes of Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Kibaki in Kenya, and Uganda's own Museveni, who's been in office forever.

In the world of finance, too, the ground has shifted. Two sundays ago, I was with some friends in the City of London, the financial district. We walked past the Lehman Brothers' building -- an imposing skyscraper, looking down on the street with it's darkened glass façade. How confident, stable and arrogant it looked. The next day, Lehman Brothers, one of the oldest and biggest banks in America, was bankrupt -- and almost all of the employees in that huge building facing unemployment.

Sometimes, when my life as a freelancer seems insecure and risky, I wonder whether I should have gone for a more stable, secure job -- something in government, or banking maybe. So much for that -- the events of the past week or two serve as a powerful lesson -- in life, nothing is certain, there are never any guarantees.