To Stand or Not to Stand

On Sunday evening, I watched pictures on television of thugs attacking people going to the MDC rally in Harare. I recognised that the action was taking place in the field between the law courts and the Zimbabwe College of Music. I had been at the College the previous day for a Board  meeting. Then Morgan came on the screen and told us that he was withdrawing from the presidential race. I must admit to having felt disappointed. Friday 27th June seemed to be a day to aim for in my life and suddenly it felt like I hadn't been invited to the party.

But Morgan is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't and, to my mind, his withdrawal is resounding proof to the international community that the vast majority of the violence stems from the ruling party: otherwise there would be no logical sense for him to withdraw from the race. SADC and other African countries also seem to agree with his decision stating that the run off "would probably not have been free and fair". It is easier, too, to delay an election and ensure that proper mechanisms are in place than to say: "Sorry, we don't like the result of that one and you must have another one." ZANU is obviously trying to preempt any free and fair election by going ahead with this one anyway so it can claim another one is not needed - but not even Mbeki will be able to buy that one - perhaps! Providing an electorate with Hobson's choice also robs Mugabe of the legitimacy he so deeply craves.

But whichever way you look at it, the tide is turning and ZANU is seriously losing face within the region and elsewhere. Russia, China and South Africa all signed the unanimous UN Security Council's statement condemning the Zimbabwean government.

If Morgan had contested and lost, I don't believe SADC would have found it that simple to reject the outcome. This way, it's easier for them to say: "it probably would not have been free and fair" and let us work towards ensuring that it will be. But let them hurry up: we need a good party.